El Matador: Inside Ilia Topuria's 9-0 Two-Division Run
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El Matador: Inside Ilia Topuria's 9-0 Two-Division Run

Max Holloway had never been knocked out in 29 UFC fights. Ilia Topuria did it in three rounds. Volkanovski had been finished once in 15. Oliveira four times in 34. We pulled every strike Topuria has thrown in the Octagon — the precision-power combo behind his 9-0 record is rarer than the headline numbers suggest.

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El Matador: Ilia Topuria Profile
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Fighter Profile

El Matador: Inside Ilia Topuria's 9-0 Two-Division Run

Max Holloway had never been knocked out in 29 UFC fights. Ilia Topuria did it in three rounds. Volkanovski had been finished once in 15. Oliveira four times in 34. We pulled every strike Topuria has thrown in the Octagon — the precision-power combo behind his 9-0 record is rarer than the headline numbers suggest.

2026-05-239 min read
The Notorious Arc: Conor McGregor Legend Files
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Legend Files

The Notorious Arc: Peak Conor, Decline Conor, and Everything In Between

Thirteen seconds against Aldo. Two divisions in two years. Then nine minutes against Khabib, a broken tibia against Poirier, and almost five years of silence. We pulled every strike of Conor McGregor's UFC career — the peak was as real as the decline, and the number that captures both is a 17-strike swing nobody can talk their way out of.

2026-05-2311 min read
The Chin Index — Knockdowns Absorbed per UFC Fight
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Analysis

The Chin Index: Who Falls, Who Doesn't, and Why

Jon Jones has 24 UFC fights and zero knockdowns absorbed. Thomas Almeida has 10 and eight. We built the Chin Index to measure defensive durability — and found that the metric predicts who gets finished by strikes with a 0.59 correlation.

2026-05-2211 min read
Prospect Watch: Quillan Salkilld — The Bonus Machine
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Prospect Watch

Prospect Watch: Quillan Salkilld — The Bonus Machine

Five UFC fights, four Performance of the Night bonuses, four of five wins inside Round 1. The data behind Quillan Salkilld's first 15 months in the lightweight division.

2026-05-165 min read
The Mighty Mouse Article Thumbnail
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Legend Files

The Smallest Giant: How Mighty Mouse Won 2,142 Days at the Top

Demetrious Johnson defended the UFC flyweight title 11 times in five years. He was the shortest male champion in UFC history — and the reason he won wasn't size disadvantage. We dissected every round of the reign.

2026-05-0811 min read
Judging Is Broken Article Thumbnail
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Opinion

Judging Is Broken: The 10-Point System Has Three Settings

Marlon Vera lost the strike count 159–271 against Rob Font and won 30-27 on every card. We analyzed every UFC judge-round since 2015 — 24,528 of them — and the data shows the 10-point system has degraded into a binary toggle.

2026-04-2710 min read

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thefightalgorithmData-Driven MMA
UFC Fight Night main event stat comparison — Rafael Fiziev vs Manuel Torres at lightweight in Baku. Torres leads UFC win rate (83%), striking volume (6.69/min) and finish rate (100%); Fiziev leads control time. The Fight Algorithm model makes Torres a 72% favorite by KO/TKO — a value bet against his +110 market price.
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thefightalgorithm⚔️ UFC Fight Night main event, the data version: Rafael Fiziev vs Manuel Torres at lightweight (Sat Jun 27, UFC Baku). Torres has the sharper resume on paper — an 83% UFC win rate, 6.69 sig strikes a minute and a 100% finish rate — against Fiziev's edge in control time. Our model makes Manuel Torres a 72% favorite to win by KO/TKO, yet the market has him a +110 underdog, so this is our rare value play of the card. #TheFightAlgorithm #UFCBaku #UFCFightNight #ManuelTorres #RafaelFiziev #Lightweight #MMAStats
Jun 27, 2026
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thefightalgorithmData-Driven MMA
The Fight Algorithm model picks for UFC Baku: Fiziev vs Torres — Manuel Torres over Rafael Fiziev (72%, a value bet at +110) by KO/TKO, and Asu Almabayev over Charles Johnson (69%) by submission as a no-edge model pick. Total staked $1,003, potential payout $971.
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thefightalgorithm🎯 Two model picks for UFC Baku: Fiziev vs. Torres (Sat Jun 27) — and one is a genuine value bet. We make Manuel Torres a 72% favorite over Rafael Fiziev by KO/TKO while the market has him +110, the kind of price gap we actually bet. The second, Asu Almabayev over Charles Johnson at 69%, is a model-confidence call only — the line is already short, no edge, floor stake. Every pick and line logged at thefightalgorithm.com/predictions #TheFightAlgorithm #UFCBaku #ManuelTorres #AsuAlmabayev #Flyweight #ValueBet #FightAnalytics
Jun 25, 2026
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thefightalgorithmData-Driven MMA
UFC Fight Night main event stat comparison — Manel Kape vs Kyoji Horiguchi at flyweight. Horiguchi leads UFC win rate (90%) and control time (2:55/fight); Kape leads striking volume (5.04/min) and finish rate (71%). The Fight Algorithm model leans Horiguchi 55%, a coin-flip below the publish bar.
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thefightalgorithm⚔️ UFC Fight Night main event, the data version: Manel Kape vs Kyoji Horiguchi at flyweight (Sat Jun 20, Meta Apex). Horiguchi owns the resume — a 90% UFC win rate and 2:55 of control a fight — while Kape brings the volume at 5.04 sig strikes a minute and a 71% finish rate. Our model leans Horiguchi but it is a coin-flip at 55%, below our 68% publish bar, so it is a no-play — and notably the betting market has Kape as the favorite. #TheFightAlgorithm #UFCFightNight #ManelKape #KyojiHoriguchi #Flyweight #FightAnalytics
Jun 20, 2026