The Fight Algorithm
Fight Forecast
Machine picks · real lines · public record
2026 Record
48–20
Win Rate
71%
Return
+60%
Bankroll
$16,039
Paper trading — every pick staked at real BestFightOdds opening lines, tracked publicly since Jan 1. Not betting advice. 21+.
UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry
🔒 Slate locked
4picks cleared the 68% bar
Confidence 70-80% · ≈$2,500 at risk
Publishes in full
after the card
Sealed before the fights — 998fb9769f1f335a8346… how to verify
Get the picks before the card
Members get every qualifying pick as soon as the card is priced — usually five to seven days out — with the model probability, the line at release, the break-even price and the stake. The record stays public either way; what you are paying for is the head start, which is the thing our closing-line audit actually measures.
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This week’s free play
One pick from every card, free, straight to your inbox — released at the same time as the paid slate, never after.
The free play is always our highest-confidence pick that has no market edge — a fighter the market already prices correctly. Value Bets, the picks that carry the edge, stay with the paid slate. No free play on a one-pick card.
Do we beat the market?
+3.81pp avg closing-line value
74% beat the close
897 picks audited
Scored against real BestFightOdds data, 2008–2026 — the industry bars for a genuine edge are +1pp and 53%. Unlike a paper bankroll, closing-line value cannot be manufactured. Verify the picks yourself.
How this works — the rules we never break▼
Pick selection: We publish every fight the model rates High confidence (win probability ≥ 68%) — not the full card, and never a lower-confidence pick. If no fight clears the bar, we sit the card out. Only matchups where both fighters have sufficient UFC data are included.
When picks go public: the upcoming card’s picks are locked until the fights are over, then published here in full and permanently — pick, odds, stake, result and running bankroll. Nothing is ever removed or restated. Before each card we publish a SHA-256 commitment over every bout the model scored; afterwards we publish the salt and the full board — how to check it yourself.
Confidence levels: High = model win probability ≥68% · Medium = 57–67% · Low = 50–56%. Only High picks are published.
Value Bet vs Model Pick: picks are tagged Value Bet when our probability beats the market’s opening line (a real betting edge) and Model Pick · No Edge when the market already prices the fighter at or above our number.
Stakes: fractional Kelly (35%) against the opening moneyline, floored at 1% of bankroll so every pick is tracked. 2026 picks are generated by ML Model v4 — logistic regression on 30 fighter features.
The Record
Every pick · every line · permanent
UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs. Salkilld
Aug 8, 2026Darren ElkinsVSYadier del Valle
Model v4 favors Yadier del Valle (78% confidence). Yadier del Valle lands 0.15 more KD/fight. On this trajectory, the grappling dominance should force a tap.
Actual: KO/TKO Round 1
Full settled record — 25 more events, 71 picks▼
UFC Fight Night: Medic vs. Rodriguez
Aug 1, 2026Jan BlachowiczVSNavajo Stirling
Model v4 favors Navajo Stirling (78% confidence). Navajo Stirling holds a 12pp win rate edge, riding a 5-fight win streak, recent form: 63% vs 40% (last 5). On this trajectory, the output and control edge should carry the scorecards.
Actual: KO/TKO Round 1
Mateusz RebeckiVSKyle Prepolec
Model v4 favors Mateusz Rebecki (71% confidence). Mateusz Rebecki averages 1.0 more TD/fight, controls 1:04 more per fight, lands 0.27 more KD/fight. On this trajectory, the output and control edge should carry the scorecards.
Actual: KO/TKO Round 1
Ludovit KleinVSTofiq Musayev
Model v4 favors Ludovit Klein (70% confidence). Ludovit Klein controls 0:51 more per fight, lands 0.17 more KD/fight, holds a 14pp win rate edge. On this trajectory, the output and control edge should carry the scorecards.
Actual: KO/TKO Round 2
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov
Jul 25, 2026Santiago PonzinibbioVSSam Patterson
Model v4 favors Sam Patterson (75% confidence). Sam Patterson absorbs 0.8 fewer strikes/min, controls 1:04 more per fight, riding a 4-fight win streak. On this trajectory, the striking edge should produce a finish.
Actual: KO/TKO Round 2
UFC Fight Night: du Plessis vs. Usman
Jul 18, 2026Jared CannonierVSChristian Leroy Duncan
Model v4 favors Christian Leroy Duncan (82% confidence). Christian Leroy Duncan absorbs 1.2 fewer strikes/min, controls 0:46 more per fight, holds a 12pp win rate edge. On this trajectory, the striking edge should produce a finish.
Actual: Decision
Chase HooperVSMitch Ramirez
Model v4 favors Chase Hooper (71% confidence). Chase Hooper controls 0:57 more per fight, holds a 11pp win rate edge. On this trajectory, the grappling dominance should force a tap.
Actual: Submission Round 1
Alden CoriaVSStewart Nicoll
Model v4 favors Alden Coria (68% confidence). Alden Coria holds a 14pp win rate edge. On this trajectory, the output and control edge should carry the scorecards.
Actual: Decision
UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2
Jul 11, 2026Damian PinasVSCesar Almeida
Model v4 favors Damian Pinas (74% confidence). Damian Pinas lands 0.13 more KD/fight. On this trajectory, the striking edge should produce a finish.
Actual: KO/TKO Round 1
UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres
Jun 27, 2026Rafael FizievVSManuel Torres
Model v4 favors Manuel Torres (72% confidence). Manuel Torres lands 0.23 more KD/fight, holds a 10pp win rate edge, recent form: 58% vs 25% (last 5). On this trajectory, the striking edge should produce a finish.
Actual: KO/TKO Round 2
Asu AlmabayevVSCharles Johnson
Model v4 favors Asu Almabayev (69% confidence). Asu Almabayev absorbs 1.1 fewer strikes/min, averages 1.8 more TD/fight, controls 2:58 more per fight. On this trajectory, the grappling dominance should force a tap.
Actual: Submission Round 3
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi
Jun 20, 2026Andre LimaVSKevin Borjas
Model v4 favors Andre Lima (75% confidence). Andre Lima absorbs 1.2 fewer strikes/min, controls 0:59 more per fight, holds a 21pp win rate edge. On this trajectory, the output and control edge should carry the scorecards.
Actual: Decision
Andre FiliVSVinicius Oliveira
Model v4 favors Vinicius Oliveira (74% confidence). Vinicius Oliveira absorbs 1.1 fewer strikes/min, holds a 11pp win rate edge. On this trajectory, the output and control edge should carry the scorecards.
Actual: KO/TKO Round 2
UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje
Jun 14, 2026Ilia TopuriaVSJustin Gaethje
Model v4 favors Ilia Topuria (83% confidence). Ilia Topuria absorbs 3.4 fewer strikes/min, averages 0.9 more TD/fight, controls 1:23 more per fight. On this trajectory, the striking edge should produce a finish.
Actual: KO/TKO Round 4
Sean O'MalleyVSAiemann Zahabi
Model v4 favors Sean O'Malley (79% confidence). Sean O'Malley throws 1.8 more sig strikes/min, lands 0.13 more KD/fight. On this trajectory, the striking edge should produce a finish.
Actual: KO/TKO Round 2
Mauricio RuffyVSMichael Chandler
Model v4 favors Mauricio Ruffy (79% confidence). Mauricio Ruffy lands 0.17 more KD/fight, holds a 21pp win rate edge, recent form: 56% vs 33% (last 5). On this trajectory, the striking edge should produce a finish.
Actual: KO/TKO Round 1
Josh HokitVSDerrick Lewis
Model v4 favors Josh Hokit (77% confidence). Josh Hokit throws 1.7 more sig strikes/min, controls 1:16 more per fight. On this trajectory, the striking edge should produce a finish.
Actual: KO/TKO Round 2
Bo NickalVSKyle Daukaus
Model v4 favors Bo Nickal (70% confidence). Bo Nickal holds a 14pp win rate edge. On this trajectory, the grappling dominance should force a tap.
Actual: KO/TKO Round 1
UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim
Jun 6, 2026Chelsea ChandlerVSPriscila Cachoeira
Model v4 favors Chelsea Chandler (77% confidence). Chelsea Chandler absorbs 3.3 fewer strikes/min, controls 2:01 more per fight, holds a 11pp win rate edge. On this trajectory, the output and control edge should carry the scorecards.
Actual: Submission Round 1
Matt SchnellVSAlessandro Costa
Model v4 favors Alessandro Costa (73% confidence). Alessandro Costa controls 1:11 more per fight, lands 0.28 more KD/fight, recent form: 50% vs 20% (last 5). On this trajectory, the striking edge should produce a finish.
Actual: KO/TKO Round 1
Bruno SilvaVSEdgar Chairez
Model v4 favors Edgar Chairez (73% confidence). Edgar Chairez absorbs 0.9 fewer strikes/min, holds a 14pp win rate edge, recent form: 46% vs 12% (last 5). On this trajectory, the grappling dominance should force a tap.
Actual: Submission Round 1
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo
May 30, 2026Zhang MingyangVSAlonzo Menifield
Model v4 favors Zhang Mingyang (75% confidence). Zhang Mingyang lands 0.13 more KD/fight. On this trajectory, the striking edge should produce a finish.
Actual: KO/TKO Round 1
Song YadongVSDeiveson Figueiredo
Model v4 favors Song Yadong (74% confidence). Song Yadong throws 2.3 more sig strikes/min. On this trajectory, the striking edge should produce a finish.
Actual: Submission Round 2
Jake MatthewsVSCarlston Harris
Model v4 favors Jake Matthews (73% confidence). Jake Matthews absorbs 0.8 fewer strikes/min. On this trajectory, the grappling dominance should force a tap.
Actual: Decision
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa
May 16, 2026Jeremiah WellsVSNicolas Dalby
Model v3 favors Jeremiah Wells (77% confidence). Jeremiah Wells absorbs 1.0 fewer strikes/min. On this trajectory, the grappling dominance should force a tap.
Ketlen VieiraVSJacqueline Cavalcanti
Model v3 favors Jacqueline Cavalcanti (76% confidence). Jacqueline Cavalcanti throws 1.5 more sig strikes/min, lands 0.15 more KD/fight, recent form: 63% vs 40% (last 5). On this trajectory, the output and control edge should carry the scorecards.
Actual: Decision
Shauna BannonVSNicolle Caliari
Model v3 favors Shauna Bannon (63% confidence). On this trajectory, the output and control edge should carry the scorecards.
Actual: Submission Round 3
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland
May 9, 2026Ateba GautierVSOzzy Diaz
Model v3 favors Ateba Gautier (83% confidence). Ateba Gautier lands 0.30 more KD/fight, holds a 12pp win rate edge. On this trajectory, the striking edge should produce a finish.
Actual: KO/TKO Round 2
Grant DawsonVSMateusz Rebecki
Model v3 favors Grant Dawson (79% confidence). Grant Dawson absorbs 1.7 fewer strikes/min, averages 0.8 more TD/fight, controls 3:48 more per fight. On this trajectory, the grappling dominance should force a tap.
Actual: Submission Round 3
Khamzat ChimaevVSSean Strickland
Model v3 favors Khamzat Chimaev (77% confidence). Khamzat Chimaev absorbs 1.8 fewer strikes/min, averages 1.4 more TD/fight, controls 2:52 more per fight. On this trajectory, the grappling dominance should force a tap.
Actual: Decision
UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates
May 2, 2026Brian JohnstonVSWes Schultz
Model v3 favors Wes Schultz (89% confidence). Wes Schultz throws 1.3 more sig strikes/min, controls 0:48 more per fight. On this trajectory, the output and control edge should carry the scorecards.
Actual: Submission Round 3
Jacob MalkounVSGerald Meerschaert
Model v3 favors Jacob Malkoun (83% confidence). Jacob Malkoun averages 1.7 more TD/fight, controls 2:12 more per fight, holds a 16pp win rate edge. On this trajectory, the output and control edge should carry the scorecards.
Actual: Decision
Colby ThicknesseVSVince Morales
Model v3 favors Colby Thicknesse (74% confidence). Colby Thicknesse controls 1:14 more per fight, holds a 22pp win rate edge, recent form: 45% vs 12% (last 5). On this trajectory, the output and control edge should carry the scorecards.
Actual: Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal
Apr 25, 2026Rodolfo VieiraVSEric McConico
Model v3 favors Rodolfo Vieira (67% confidence). On this trajectory, the grappling dominance should force a tap.
Actual: Decision
Rafa GarciaVSAlexander Hernandez
Model v3 favors Rafa Garcia (62% confidence). Rafa Garcia averages 1.5 more TD/fight, controls 1:23 more per fight. On this trajectory, the output and control edge should carry the scorecards.
Actual: Decision
Talita AlencarVSJulia Polastri
Model v3 favors Julia Polastri (61% confidence). On this trajectory, the output and control edge should carry the scorecards.
Actual: Decision
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Malott
Apr 18, 2026Gilbert BurnsVSMike Malott
Model v3 favors Mike Malott (73% confidence). Mike Malott lands 0.17 more KD/fight, recent form: 61% vs 20% (last 5). On this trajectory, the striking edge should produce a finish.
Actual: KO/TKO Round 3
Thiago MoisesVSGauge Young
Model v3 favors Gauge Young (72% confidence). Gauge Young throws 1.7 more sig strikes/min, lands 0.15 more KD/fight. On this trajectory, the output and control edge should carry the scorecards.
Actual: Decision
Kyler PhillipsVSCharles Jourdain
Model v3 favors Kyler Phillips (72% confidence). Kyler Phillips averages 1.4 more TD/fight, controls 1:02 more per fight. On this trajectory, the output and control edge should carry the scorecards.
Actual: Decision
UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg
Apr 11, 2026Azamat MurzakanovVSPaulo Costa
Model v3 favors Azamat Murzakanov (77% confidence). Azamat Murzakanov absorbs 2.2 fewer strikes/min, lands 0.15 more KD/fight, holds a 13pp win rate edge. On this trajectory, the striking edge should produce a finish.
Actual: KO/TKO Round 3
Tatiana SuarezVSLoopy Godinez
Model v3 favors Tatiana Suarez (70% confidence). Tatiana Suarez absorbs 1.7 fewer strikes/min, controls 1:10 more per fight, holds a 13pp win rate edge. On this trajectory, the output and control edge should carry the scorecards.
Actual: Submission Round 2
Dominick ReyesVSJohnny Walker
Model v3 favors Dominick Reyes (68% confidence). Dominick Reyes throws 1.5 more sig strikes/min, lands 0.13 more KD/fight. On this trajectory, the striking edge should produce a finish.
Actual: Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan
Apr 4, 2026Azamat BekoevVSTresean Gore
Model v2 favors Azamat Bekoev (62% confidence). Azamat Bekoev throws 1.3 more sig strikes/min, controls 1:22 more per fight, lands 0.67 more KD/fight. On this trajectory, the striking edge should produce a finish.
Actual: Submission Round 3
Dione BarbosaVSMelissa Gatto
Model v2 favors Melissa Gatto (60% confidence). Melissa Gatto throws 1.4 more sig strikes/min, controls 0:53 more per fight, lands 0.20 more KD/fight. On this trajectory, the output and control edge should carry the scorecards.
Actual: Decision
Lando VannataVSDarrius Flowers
Model v2 favors Lando Vannata (60% confidence). Lando Vannata throws 1.1 more sig strikes/min, absorbs 1.0 fewer strikes/min, lands 0.18 more KD/fight. On this trajectory, the output and control edge should carry the scorecards.
Actual: KO/TKO Round 2
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer
Mar 28, 2026Terrance McKinneyVSKyle Nelson
Model v2 favors Terrance McKinney (69% confidence). Terrance McKinney throws 3.5 more sig strikes/min, lands 0.15 more KD/fight. On this trajectory, the striking edge should produce a finish.
Actual: KO/TKO Round 1
Alexa GrassoVSMaycee Barber
Model v2 favors Maycee Barber (68% confidence). Maycee Barber absorbs 1.1 fewer strikes/min, averages 0.9 more TD/fight, controls 1:24 more per fight. On this trajectory, the output and control edge should carry the scorecards.
Actual: KO/TKO Round 1
Michael ChiesaVSNiko Price
Model v2 favors Michael Chiesa (67% confidence). Michael Chiesa absorbs 3.8 fewer strikes/min, averages 1.3 more TD/fight, controls 2:29 more per fight. On this trajectory, the grappling dominance should force a tap.
Actual: Submission Round 1
UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy
Mar 21, 2026Roman DolidzeVSChristian Leroy Duncan
Model v2 favors Christian Leroy Duncan (69% confidence). Christian Leroy Duncan throws 1.2 more sig strikes/min, riding a 3-fight win streak, recent form: 80% vs 60% (last 5). On this trajectory, the striking edge should produce a finish.
Actual: Decision
Movsar EvloevVSLerone Murphy
Model v2 favors Movsar Evloev (59% confidence). Movsar Evloev averages 3.2 more TD/fight, controls 3:34 more per fight. On this trajectory, the output and control edge should carry the scorecards.
Actual: Decision
Melissa MullinsVSLuana Carolina
Model v2 favors Melissa Mullins (56% confidence). Melissa Mullins averages 1.2 more TD/fight, controls 2:37 more per fight. On this trajectory, the output and control edge should carry the scorecards.
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos
Mar 14, 2026Josh EmmettVSKevin Vallejos
Model v2 favors Kevin Vallejos (71% confidence). Kevin Vallejos throws 1.3 more sig strikes/min, holds a 38pp win rate edge, riding a 3-fight win streak. On this trajectory, the striking edge should produce a finish.
Actual: KO/TKO Round 1
Chris CurtisVSMyktybek Orolbai
Model v2 favors Myktybek Orolbai (71% confidence). Myktybek Orolbai absorbs 2.9 fewer strikes/min, averages 3.4 more TD/fight, controls 3:47 more per fight. On this trajectory, the striking edge should produce a finish.
Actual: Decision
Ion CutelabaVSOumar Sy
Model v2 favors Oumar Sy (70% confidence). Oumar Sy absorbs 1.4 fewer strikes/min, controls 1:56 more per fight, holds a 31pp win rate edge. On this trajectory, the output and control edge should carry the scorecards.
Actual: Submission Round 1
UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2
Mar 7, 2026Renato MoicanoVSBrian Ortega
Model v2 favors Renato Moicano (66% confidence). Renato Moicano absorbs 2.8 fewer strikes/min, controls 0:48 more per fight, recent form: 60% vs 20% (last 5). On this trajectory, the striking edge should produce a finish.
Rob FontVSRaul Rosas Jr.
Model v2 favors Raul Rosas Jr. (61% confidence). Raul Rosas Jr. absorbs 2.2 fewer strikes/min, averages 2.0 more TD/fight, controls 3:59 more per fight. On this trajectory, the grappling dominance should force a tap.
Actual: Decision
Cody GarbrandtVSXiao Long
Model v2 favors Cody Garbrandt (58% confidence). Cody Garbrandt absorbs 1.3 fewer strikes/min, lands 0.35 more KD/fight, holds a 23pp win rate edge. On this trajectory, the striking edge should produce a finish.
Actual: Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh
Feb 28, 2026Cristian QuinonezVSKris Moutinho
Model v2 favors Cristian Quinonez (89% confidence). Cristian Quinonez absorbs 10.7 fewer strikes/min, controls 1:02 more per fight, holds a 33pp win rate edge. On this trajectory, the striking edge should produce a finish.
Macy ChiassonVSAilin Perez
Model v2 favors Ailin Perez (71% confidence). Ailin Perez absorbs 1.1 fewer strikes/min, averages 2.4 more TD/fight, controls 1:37 more per fight. On this trajectory, the output and control edge should carry the scorecards.
Actual: Decision
Daniel ZellhuberVSKing Green
Model v2 favors King Green (64% confidence). King Green absorbs 2.3 fewer strikes/min, averages 0.8 more TD/fight, controls 1:08 more per fight. On this trajectory, the output and control edge should carry the scorecards.
Actual: KO/TKO Round 2
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez
Feb 21, 2026Sean StricklandVSAnthony Hernandez
Model v2 favors Anthony Hernandez (85% confidence). Anthony Hernandez absorbs 2.0 fewer strikes/min, averages 4.1 more TD/fight, controls 5:08 more per fight. On this trajectory, the grappling dominance should force a tap.
Actual: KO/TKO Round 3
Melquizael CostaVSDan Ige
Model v2 favors Melquizael Costa (65% confidence). Melquizael Costa holds a 20pp win rate edge, riding a 5-fight win streak, recent form: 100% vs 40% (last 5). On this trajectory, the output and control edge should carry the scorecards.
Actual: KO/TKO Round 1
Uros MedicVSGeoff Neal
Model v2 favors Uros Medic (62% confidence). Uros Medic absorbs 1.9 fewer strikes/min, lands 0.16 more KD/fight. On this trajectory, the striking edge should produce a finish.
Actual: KO/TKO Round 1
UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira
Feb 7, 2026Michal OleksiejczukVSMarc-Andre Barriault
Model v2 favors Michal Oleksiejczuk (67% confidence). Michal Oleksiejczuk absorbs 1.2 fewer strikes/min, lands 0.36 more KD/fight, holds a 16pp win rate edge. On this trajectory, the striking edge should produce a finish.
Actual: Decision
Mario BautistaVSVinicius Oliveira
Model v2 favors Vinicius Oliveira (64% confidence). Vinicius Oliveira absorbs 1.3 fewer strikes/min, controls 0:47 more per fight, lands 0.35 more KD/fight. On this trajectory, the output and control edge should carry the scorecards.
Actual: Submission Round 2
Kyoji HoriguchiVSAmir Albazi
Model v2 favors Kyoji Horiguchi (61% confidence). Kyoji Horiguchi absorbs 1.5 fewer strikes/min, lands 0.33 more KD/fight, riding a 4-fight win streak. On this trajectory, the output and control edge should carry the scorecards.
Actual: Decision
UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2
Jan 31, 2026Alexander VolkanovskiVSDiego Lopes
Model v2 favors Alexander Volkanovski (67% confidence). Alexander Volkanovski throws 1.8 more sig strikes/min, absorbs 1.4 fewer strikes/min, averages 1.2 more TD/fight. On this trajectory, the output and control edge should carry the scorecards.
Actual: Decision
Benoit Saint DenisVSDan Hooker
Model v2 favors Benoit Saint Denis (63% confidence). Benoit Saint Denis averages 1.5 more TD/fight, controls 1:19 more per fight, holds a 12pp win rate edge. On this trajectory, the striking edge should produce a finish.
Actual: KO/TKO Round 2
Mauricio RuffyVSRafael Fiziev
Model v2 favors Mauricio Ruffy (59% confidence). Mauricio Ruffy lands 0.57 more KD/fight, holds a 11pp win rate edge, recent form: 75% vs 40% (last 5). On this trajectory, the striking edge should produce a finish.
Actual: KO/TKO Round 2
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett
Jan 24, 2026Justin GaethjeVSPaddy Pimblett
Model v2 favors Paddy Pimblett (78% confidence). Paddy Pimblett absorbs 4.0 fewer strikes/min, controls 2:00 more per fight, holds a 36pp win rate edge. On this trajectory, the grappling dominance should force a tap.
Actual: Decision Round 5
Natalia SilvaVSRose Namajunas
Model v2 favors Natalia Silva (68% confidence). Natalia Silva throws 1.4 more sig strikes/min, absorbs 0.9 fewer strikes/min, holds a 33pp win rate edge. On this trajectory, the output and control edge should carry the scorecards.
Actual: Decision
Waldo Cortes AcostaVSDerrick Lewis
Model v2 favors Waldo Cortes Acosta (61% confidence). Waldo Cortes Acosta throws 2.9 more sig strikes/min, holds a 15pp win rate edge, recent form: 80% vs 60% (last 5). On this trajectory, the striking edge should produce a finish.
Actual: KO/TKO Round 2