Fight Forecast

ML-powered predictions tracked against real results

Prediction Record

All-Time Record

24/36

All-Time Accuracy

67%

2026 Accuracy

67%

24/36 correct

Current Streak

1L

loss streak

Paper Bankroll

$1,000 start · 25% Kelly

Current Bankroll

$1,479

+$478.95 total

ROI

+47.9%

return on bankroll

Total Staked

$1,390

across 36 bets

Bet Record

24-12

67% hit rate

At Risk Next Card

$162.69across 3 picks · potential +$136.93

UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates

2026 picks generated by ML Model v2 — Logistic Regression on 30 fighter features — 60.1% CV accuracy on holdout data

Paper bankroll starts at $1,000 on Jan 1. Each pick is staked at 25% Kelly using the opening moneyline from BestFightOdds.com, floored at 1% of bankroll so every pick is tracked.

How This Works

Pick selection: Each event shows the 3 fights with the highest model confidence — not the full card. Only matchups where both fighters have sufficient UFC data are included.

Win tracker: The record and accuracy stats above track winner predictions only — a pick is correct if the right fighter wins, regardless of method. The “via” method shown on each card is the model’s best guess at how the fight ends, but method accuracy is not factored into the win/loss record.

Confidence levels: High = model win probability >65% · Medium = 55–65% · Low = 50–55%.

UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates

UpcomingMay 2, 2026
Pending

Brian JohnstonVSWes Schultz

Pick: Wes Schultz via DecisionHigh Confidence

Model v3 favors Wes Schultz (89% confidence). Wes Schultz throws 1.3 more sig strikes/min, controls 0:48 more per fight. On this trajectory, the output and control edge should carry the scorecards.

ProjectedOdds -110Stake $73.95win → +$67.23locked 2026-04-26
Pending

Jacob MalkounVSGerald Meerschaert

Pick: Jacob Malkoun via DecisionHigh Confidence

Model v3 favors Jacob Malkoun (83% confidence). Jacob Malkoun averages 1.7 more TD/fight, controls 2:12 more per fight, holds a 16pp win rate edge. On this trajectory, the output and control edge should carry the scorecards.

ProjectedOdds -600Stake $14.79win → +$2.46locked 2026-04-26
Pending

Colby ThicknesseVSVince Morales

Pick: Colby Thicknesse via DecisionHigh Confidence

Model v3 favors Colby Thicknesse (74% confidence). Colby Thicknesse controls 1:14 more per fight, holds a 22pp win rate edge, recent form: 45% vs 12% (last 5). On this trajectory, the output and control edge should carry the scorecards.

ProjectedOdds -110Stake $73.95win → +$67.23locked 2026-04-26

UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal

Apr 25, 2026
Incorrect

Rodolfo VieiraVSEric McConico

Pick: Rodolfo Vieira via SubmissionMedium Confidence

Model v3 favors Rodolfo Vieira (67% confidence). On this trajectory, the grappling dominance should force a tap.

Actual: Decision

Paper BetOdds -300Stake $14.17$-14.17bankroll $1,402.71
Correct

Rafa GarciaVSAlexander Hernandez

Pick: Rafa Garcia via DecisionMedium Confidence

Model v3 favors Rafa Garcia (62% confidence). Rafa Garcia averages 1.5 more TD/fight, controls 1:23 more per fight. On this trajectory, the output and control edge should carry the scorecards.

Actual: Decision

Paper BetOdds +130Stake $70.14+$91.18bankroll $1,493.89
Incorrect

Talita AlencarVSJulia Polastri

Pick: Julia Polastri via DecisionMedium Confidence

Model v3 favors Julia Polastri (61% confidence). On this trajectory, the output and control edge should carry the scorecards.

Actual: Decision

Paper BetOdds -200Stake $14.94$-14.94bankroll $1,478.95

UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Malott

Apr 18, 2026
Correct

Gilbert BurnsVSMike Malott

Pick: Mike Malott via KO/TKOHigh Confidence

Model v3 favors Mike Malott (73% confidence). Mike Malott lands 0.17 more KD/fight, recent form: 61% vs 20% (last 5). On this trajectory, the striking edge should produce a finish.

Actual: KO/TKO Round 3

Paper BetOdds -335Stake $13.96+$4.17bankroll $1,400.42
Correct

Thiago MoisesVSGauge Young

Pick: Gauge Young via DecisionHigh Confidence

Model v3 favors Gauge Young (72% confidence). Gauge Young throws 1.7 more sig strikes/min, lands 0.15 more KD/fight. On this trajectory, the output and control edge should carry the scorecards.

Actual: Decision

Paper BetOdds +130Stake $70.02+$91.03bankroll $1,491.45
Incorrect

Kyler PhillipsVSCharles Jourdain

Pick: Kyler Phillips via DecisionHigh Confidence

Model v3 favors Kyler Phillips (72% confidence). Kyler Phillips averages 1.4 more TD/fight, controls 1:02 more per fight. On this trajectory, the output and control edge should carry the scorecards.

Actual: Decision

Paper BetOdds +130Stake $74.57$-74.57bankroll $1,416.88

UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg

Apr 11, 2026
Incorrect

Azamat MurzakanovVSPaulo Costa

Pick: Azamat Murzakanov via KO/TKOHigh Confidence

Model v3 favors Azamat Murzakanov (77% confidence). Azamat Murzakanov absorbs 2.2 fewer strikes/min, lands 0.15 more KD/fight, holds a 13pp win rate edge. On this trajectory, the striking edge should produce a finish.

Actual: KO/TKO Round 3

Paper BetOdds -230Stake $68.02$-68.02bankroll $1,292.46
Correct

Tatiana SuarezVSLoopy Godinez

Pick: Tatiana Suarez via DecisionHigh Confidence

Model v3 favors Tatiana Suarez (70% confidence). Tatiana Suarez absorbs 1.7 fewer strikes/min, controls 1:10 more per fight, holds a 13pp win rate edge. On this trajectory, the output and control edge should carry the scorecards.

Actual: Submission Round 2

Paper BetOdds -110Stake $64.62+$58.75bankroll $1,351.21
Correct

Dominick ReyesVSJohnny Walker

Pick: Dominick Reyes via KO/TKOMedium Confidence

Model v3 favors Dominick Reyes (68% confidence). Dominick Reyes throws 1.5 more sig strikes/min, lands 0.13 more KD/fight. On this trajectory, the striking edge should produce a finish.

Actual: Decision

Paper BetOdds -150Stake $67.56+$45.04bankroll $1,396.25

UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan

Apr 4, 2026
Incorrect

Azamat BekoevVSTresean Gore

Pick: Azamat Bekoev via KO/TKOMedium ConfidenceML v2

Model v2 favors Azamat Bekoev (62% confidence). Azamat Bekoev throws 1.3 more sig strikes/min, controls 1:22 more per fight, lands 0.67 more KD/fight. On this trajectory, the striking edge should produce a finish.

Actual: Submission Round 3

Paper BetOdds -110Stake $73.43$-73.43bankroll $1,395.15
Incorrect

Dione BarbosaVSMelissa Gatto

Pick: Melissa Gatto via DecisionMedium ConfidenceML v2

Model v2 favors Melissa Gatto (60% confidence). Melissa Gatto throws 1.4 more sig strikes/min, controls 0:53 more per fight, lands 0.20 more KD/fight. On this trajectory, the output and control edge should carry the scorecards.

Actual: Decision

Paper BetOdds -135Stake $20.93$-20.93bankroll $1,374.22
Incorrect

Lando VannataVSDarrius Flowers

Pick: Lando Vannata via DecisionMedium ConfidenceML v2

Model v2 favors Lando Vannata (60% confidence). Lando Vannata throws 1.1 more sig strikes/min, absorbs 1.0 fewer strikes/min, lands 0.18 more KD/fight. On this trajectory, the output and control edge should carry the scorecards.

Actual: KO/TKO Round 2

Paper BetOdds -170Stake $13.74$-13.74bankroll $1,360.48

UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer

Mar 28, 2026
Correct

Terrance McKinneyVSKyle Nelson

Pick: Terrance McKinney via KO/TKOHigh ConfidenceML v2

Model v2 favors Terrance McKinney (69% confidence). Terrance McKinney throws 3.5 more sig strikes/min, lands 0.15 more KD/fight. On this trajectory, the striking edge should produce a finish.

Actual: KO/TKO Round 1

Paper BetOdds -175Stake $53.47+$30.55bankroll $1,480.45
Incorrect

Alexa GrassoVSMaycee Barber

Pick: Maycee Barber via DecisionHigh ConfidenceML v2

Model v2 favors Maycee Barber (68% confidence). Maycee Barber absorbs 1.1 fewer strikes/min, averages 0.9 more TD/fight, controls 1:24 more per fight. On this trajectory, the output and control edge should carry the scorecards.

Actual: KO/TKO Round 1

Paper BetOdds -200Stake $14.80$-14.80bankroll $1,465.65
Correct

Michael ChiesaVSNiko Price

Pick: Michael Chiesa via SubmissionMedium ConfidenceML v2

Model v2 favors Michael Chiesa (67% confidence). Michael Chiesa absorbs 3.8 fewer strikes/min, averages 1.3 more TD/fight, controls 2:29 more per fight. On this trajectory, the grappling dominance should force a tap.

Actual: Submission Round 1

Paper BetOdds -500Stake $14.66+$2.93bankroll $1,468.58

UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy

Mar 21, 2026
Correct

Roman DolidzeVSChristian Leroy Duncan

Pick: Christian Leroy Duncan via KO/TKOHigh ConfidenceML v2

Model v2 favors Christian Leroy Duncan (69% confidence). Christian Leroy Duncan throws 1.2 more sig strikes/min, riding a 3-fight win streak, recent form: 80% vs 60% (last 5). On this trajectory, the striking edge should produce a finish.

Actual: Decision

Paper BetOdds -250Stake $14.38+$5.75bankroll $1,444.12
Correct

Movsar EvloevVSLerone Murphy

Pick: Movsar Evloev via DecisionMedium ConfidenceML v2

Model v2 favors Movsar Evloev (59% confidence). Movsar Evloev averages 3.2 more TD/fight, controls 3:34 more per fight. On this trajectory, the output and control edge should carry the scorecards.

Actual: Decision

Paper BetOdds -250Stake $14.44+$5.78bankroll $1,449.90
Cancelled

Melissa MullinsVSLuana Carolina

Pick: Melissa Mullins via DecisionLow ConfidenceML v2

Model v2 favors Melissa Mullins (56% confidence). Melissa Mullins averages 1.2 more TD/fight, controls 2:37 more per fight. On this trajectory, the output and control edge should carry the scorecards.

UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos

Mar 14, 2026
Correct

Josh EmmettVSKevin Vallejos

Pick: Kevin Vallejos via KO/TKOHigh ConfidenceML v2

Model v2 favors Kevin Vallejos (71% confidence). Kevin Vallejos throws 1.3 more sig strikes/min, holds a 38pp win rate edge, riding a 3-fight win streak. On this trajectory, the striking edge should produce a finish.

Actual: KO/TKO Round 1

Paper BetOdds -500Stake $14.66+$2.93bankroll $1,469.37
Correct

Chris CurtisVSMyktybek Orolbai

Pick: Myktybek Orolbai via KO/TKOHigh ConfidenceML v2

Model v2 favors Myktybek Orolbai (71% confidence). Myktybek Orolbai absorbs 2.9 fewer strikes/min, averages 3.4 more TD/fight, controls 3:47 more per fight. On this trajectory, the striking edge should produce a finish.

Actual: Decision

Paper BetOdds -250Stake $14.69+$5.88bankroll $1,475.25
Incorrect

Ion CutelabaVSOumar Sy

Pick: Oumar Sy via DecisionHigh ConfidenceML v2

Model v2 favors Oumar Sy (70% confidence). Oumar Sy absorbs 1.4 fewer strikes/min, controls 1:56 more per fight, holds a 31pp win rate edge. On this trajectory, the output and control edge should carry the scorecards.

Actual: Submission Round 1

Paper BetOdds -200Stake $36.88$-36.88bankroll $1,438.37

UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2

Mar 7, 2026
Cancelled

Renato MoicanoVSBrian Ortega

Pick: Renato Moicano via KO/TKOMedium ConfidenceML v2

Model v2 favors Renato Moicano (66% confidence). Renato Moicano absorbs 2.8 fewer strikes/min, controls 0:48 more per fight, recent form: 60% vs 20% (last 5). On this trajectory, the striking edge should produce a finish.

Correct

Rob FontVSRaul Rosas Jr.

Pick: Raul Rosas Jr. via SubmissionMedium ConfidenceML v2

Model v2 favors Raul Rosas Jr. (61% confidence). Raul Rosas Jr. absorbs 2.2 fewer strikes/min, averages 2.0 more TD/fight, controls 3:59 more per fight. On this trajectory, the grappling dominance should force a tap.

Actual: Decision

Paper BetOdds -500Stake $13.49+$2.70bankroll $1,351.55
Correct

Cody GarbrandtVSXiao Long

Pick: Cody Garbrandt via KO/TKOMedium ConfidenceML v2

Model v2 favors Cody Garbrandt (58% confidence). Cody Garbrandt absorbs 1.3 fewer strikes/min, lands 0.35 more KD/fight, holds a 23pp win rate edge. On this trajectory, the striking edge should produce a finish.

Actual: Decision

Paper BetOdds +170Stake $67.58+$114.89bankroll $1,466.44

UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh

Feb 28, 2026
Cancelled

Cristian QuinonezVSKris Moutinho

Pick: Cristian Quinonez via KO/TKOHigh ConfidenceML v2

Model v2 favors Cristian Quinonez (89% confidence). Cristian Quinonez absorbs 10.7 fewer strikes/min, controls 1:02 more per fight, holds a 33pp win rate edge. On this trajectory, the striking edge should produce a finish.

Correct

Macy ChiassonVSAilin Perez

Pick: Ailin Perez via DecisionHigh ConfidenceML v2

Model v2 favors Ailin Perez (71% confidence). Ailin Perez absorbs 1.1 fewer strikes/min, averages 2.4 more TD/fight, controls 1:37 more per fight. On this trajectory, the output and control edge should carry the scorecards.

Actual: Decision

Paper BetOdds -129Stake $55.26+$42.84bankroll $1,147.95
Correct

Daniel ZellhuberVSKing Green

Pick: King Green via DecisionMedium ConfidenceML v2

Model v2 favors King Green (64% confidence). King Green absorbs 2.3 fewer strikes/min, averages 0.8 more TD/fight, controls 1:08 more per fight. On this trajectory, the output and control edge should carry the scorecards.

Actual: KO/TKO Round 2

Paper BetOdds +350Stake $57.40+$200.90bankroll $1,348.85

UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez

Feb 21, 2026
Incorrect

Sean StricklandVSAnthony Hernandez

Pick: Anthony Hernandez via SubmissionHigh ConfidenceML v2

Model v2 favors Anthony Hernandez (85% confidence). Anthony Hernandez absorbs 2.0 fewer strikes/min, averages 4.1 more TD/fight, controls 5:08 more per fight. On this trajectory, the grappling dominance should force a tap.

Actual: KO/TKO Round 3

Paper BetOdds -245Stake $51.90$-51.90bankroll $986.18
Correct

Melquizael CostaVSDan Ige

Pick: Melquizael Costa via DecisionMedium ConfidenceML v2

Model v2 favors Melquizael Costa (65% confidence). Melquizael Costa holds a 20pp win rate edge, riding a 5-fight win streak, recent form: 100% vs 40% (last 5). On this trajectory, the output and control edge should carry the scorecards.

Actual: KO/TKO Round 1

Paper BetOdds -125Stake $49.31+$39.45bankroll $1,025.63
Correct

Uros MedicVSGeoff Neal

Pick: Uros Medic via KO/TKOMedium ConfidenceML v2

Model v2 favors Uros Medic (62% confidence). Uros Medic absorbs 1.9 fewer strikes/min, lands 0.16 more KD/fight. On this trajectory, the striking edge should produce a finish.

Actual: KO/TKO Round 1

Paper BetOdds +155Stake $51.28+$79.48bankroll $1,105.11

UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira

Feb 7, 2026
Correct

Michal OleksiejczukVSMarc-Andre Barriault

Pick: Michal Oleksiejczuk via KO/TKOMedium ConfidenceML v2

Model v2 favors Michal Oleksiejczuk (67% confidence). Michal Oleksiejczuk absorbs 1.2 fewer strikes/min, lands 0.36 more KD/fight, holds a 16pp win rate edge. On this trajectory, the striking edge should produce a finish.

Actual: Decision

Paper BetOdds -110Stake $52.02+$47.29bankroll $1,087.77
Incorrect

Mario BautistaVSVinicius Oliveira

Pick: Vinicius Oliveira via DecisionMedium ConfidenceML v2

Model v2 favors Vinicius Oliveira (64% confidence). Vinicius Oliveira absorbs 1.3 fewer strikes/min, controls 0:47 more per fight, lands 0.35 more KD/fight. On this trajectory, the output and control edge should carry the scorecards.

Actual: Submission Round 2

Paper BetOdds +120Stake $54.39$-54.39bankroll $1,033.38
Correct

Kyoji HoriguchiVSAmir Albazi

Pick: Kyoji Horiguchi via DecisionMedium ConfidenceML v2

Model v2 favors Kyoji Horiguchi (61% confidence). Kyoji Horiguchi absorbs 1.5 fewer strikes/min, lands 0.33 more KD/fight, riding a 4-fight win streak. On this trajectory, the output and control edge should carry the scorecards.

Actual: Decision

Paper BetOdds -220Stake $10.33+$4.70bankroll $1,038.08

UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2

Jan 31, 2026
Correct

Alexander VolkanovskiVSDiego Lopes

Pick: Alexander Volkanovski via DecisionMedium ConfidenceML v2

Model v2 favors Alexander Volkanovski (67% confidence). Alexander Volkanovski throws 1.8 more sig strikes/min, absorbs 1.4 fewer strikes/min, averages 1.2 more TD/fight. On this trajectory, the output and control edge should carry the scorecards.

Actual: Decision

Paper BetOdds -166Stake $30.14+$18.16bankroll $1,004.83
Correct

Benoit Saint DenisVSDan Hooker

Pick: Benoit Saint Denis via KO/TKOMedium ConfidenceML v2

Model v2 favors Benoit Saint Denis (63% confidence). Benoit Saint Denis averages 1.5 more TD/fight, controls 1:19 more per fight, holds a 12pp win rate edge. On this trajectory, the striking edge should produce a finish.

Actual: KO/TKO Round 2

Paper BetOdds -265Stake $10.05+$3.79bankroll $1,008.62
Correct

Mauricio RuffyVSRafael Fiziev

Pick: Mauricio Ruffy via KO/TKOMedium ConfidenceML v2

Model v2 favors Mauricio Ruffy (59% confidence). Mauricio Ruffy lands 0.57 more KD/fight, holds a 11pp win rate edge, recent form: 75% vs 40% (last 5). On this trajectory, the striking edge should produce a finish.

Actual: KO/TKO Round 2

Paper BetOdds -110Stake $35.05+$31.86bankroll $1,040.48

UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett

Jan 24, 2026
Incorrect

Justin GaethjeVSPaddy Pimblett

Pick: Paddy Pimblett via SubmissionHigh ConfidenceML v2

Model v2 favors Paddy Pimblett (78% confidence). Paddy Pimblett absorbs 4.0 fewer strikes/min, controls 2:00 more per fight, holds a 36pp win rate edge. On this trajectory, the grappling dominance should force a tap.

Actual: Decision Round 5

Paper BetOdds -230Stake $50.00$-50.00bankroll $950.00
Correct

Natalia SilvaVSRose Namajunas

Pick: Natalia Silva via DecisionMedium ConfidenceML v2

Model v2 favors Natalia Silva (68% confidence). Natalia Silva throws 1.4 more sig strikes/min, absorbs 0.9 fewer strikes/min, holds a 33pp win rate edge. On this trajectory, the output and control edge should carry the scorecards.

Actual: Decision

Paper BetOdds -150Stake $47.50+$31.67bankroll $981.67
Correct

Waldo Cortes AcostaVSDerrick Lewis

Pick: Waldo Cortes Acosta via KO/TKOMedium ConfidenceML v2

Model v2 favors Waldo Cortes Acosta (61% confidence). Waldo Cortes Acosta throws 2.9 more sig strikes/min, holds a 15pp win rate edge, recent form: 80% vs 60% (last 5). On this trajectory, the striking edge should produce a finish.

Actual: KO/TKO Round 2

Paper BetOdds -200Stake $10.00+$5.00bankroll $986.67